2025 Fall fertilizer outlook: Management tips during economic uncertainty
Hello and welcome back to University of Minnesota Extension's nutrient management podcast. I'm your host Jack Wilcox in communications with Extension.
Jack Wilcox:It's that time of year again, time for our annual fall fertilizer outlook episode, and there's a lot to talk about. I'm joined by four guests today. Could you each please introduce yourselves?
Brad Carlson:Brad Carlson, an extension educator out of the Mankato Regional Office. Work a lot with nitrogen water quality issues and work statewide.
Lindsay Pease:Hi. I'm Lindsey Pease, and I'm an associate professor and extension specialist in nutrient and water management. I work out of the Northwest Research and Outreach Center in Crookston.
Jeff Vetsch:Hi. I'm Jeff Vetsch. I'm a research supervisor at the Southern Research and Outreach Center in Waseca, and I do nutrient management research in South Central, Southeastern Minnesota and focus on nitrogen.
Daniel Kaiser:This is Daniel Kaiser. I'm a nutrient management specialist, extension specialist out of the Saint Paul campus with the University of Minnesota. My area is our fertilizer guidelines for the state of Minnesota.
Jack Wilcox:Brad Carlson, given the overall economics of crop production right now, how should farmers be approaching their fertilizer decisions for this fall?
Brad Carlson:Well, that's an interesting question, Jack, and there's a whole lot we could talk about with with respect to that. You know, I've worked on some different aspects of this for a long time. You know, we'd like to say from the university's perspective that nothing is different because we always kinda stress to farmers to be managing for what's in their best interest economically. Certainly, we're getting a lot more engagement from farmers this year regarding the the the current trough we're in as far as farm economics. I know we just had farm fest wrapped up here a couple weeks ago, and I was at the extension booth a couple days of that.
Brad Carlson:There certainly is a lot of questions about farmers who are discussing wanting to lower their fertilizer bills. You know, there's an area that I've worked with for a number of years where we look at the, adult farm management records in Minnesota and and overall profitability. And, you know, we've kinda found that the least profitable farms in Minnesota are overspending the most profitable farms by about 30% on fertilizer. And, obviously, there's there's not a return on that investment. These folks, again, they're in the the least profitable category when it comes to that.
Brad Carlson:In fact, Paul McDivitt recently forwarded me something that came from the University of Illinois, and it was very similar to that. It didn't look at overall profitability, but it was looking at nitrogen rate and which is interesting because Illinois does have higher nitrogen rate recommendations. They got lower soil organic matters there. They got a little bit longer growing season, some different corn genetics are are used there. However, they were finding that their most profitable nit nitrogen rate was in the one fifty to one seventy five cat pounds per acre category, and that the least profitable were people who are applying 225 an acre or greater, very similar to the stuff that we're kinda looking at.
Brad Carlson:Now, of course, we don't ever really know, you know, what the expenses are that drive farmers into the into that high range. You know, we can speculate, but but there's a couple of broad categories that that I think we're pretty comfortable with. One is using practices that we don't recommend, things like fall urea in much of the state that that ends up, resulting either in poor yields, or in the need to overapply rate. And that, of course, gets to the second one, which is overapplying rate, either putting on too much, more than the crop actually needs or using rate to masks, some other bad choices as far as practices are concerned. And then, of course, it's just some other stuff, relative to if you're doing some more, I guess, for lack of a better term, creative fertilizer applications, if you're split applying, if you're using unconventional products that have premium prices and so forth that can lead to some of that stuff too.
Brad Carlson:I think, you know, the other thing, though, that I learned at FarmFest and really, shouldn't say I learned at FarmFest because I knew this all along, but it was feedback I got from a lot of the farmers is how frequently farmers will tell me that they are not making their own fertilizer decisions. You know? That's that's kind of a a an interesting thing when you're handing your checkbook to somebody else and saying, yeah, just write check out for whatever you want my expense to be this year. Really, I would encourage farmers to to engage in that. And I'm not saying you're necessarily being ripped off, but it is possible you might be able to trim some fat off of there because you're the one who's standing to lose some money, not the person selling product.
Brad Carlson:Now the other aspect of this that's that's come to light here is this big dark cloud on the horizon relative to particularly nitrogen fertilizer availability long term. We don't have a lot of answers for this right now. I talked to one farmer who was trying to price nitrogen, for next year. This person farms in Southeast Minnesota. They do not do a lot of fall nitrogen.
Brad Carlson:They've got a little bit of that, kind of out on the the Western side, the Dodge, Rice County area. But most of their lands in Southeast, they primarily are are doing applications in the spring, and they were being told that they could not price urea yet, that there's a lot of uncertainty in the market right now relative to urea product availability and, what the final price point will be, and some of this is relative to tariffs and other, ripple effect of trade issues. So, you know, as we're recording this here towards the end of summer, obviously, we're a long ways away from when that fertilizer is going to be applied next spring. There's a lot of things that are left to develop before that time. But, you know, I think the other thing to keep in mind when we talk about economics in that respect is that if we do end up raising the price of urea, it is going to cause a more larger demand on anhydrous ammonia, and that could end up raising the price of anhydrous ammonia as well as affecting its availability.
Brad Carlson:So I think that chapter is yet to be written.
Daniel Kaiser:And I think, you know, Brad, you brought up the tariff situation. There's a lot we don't know there, and that's one of the really concerns I have more on the DAP and MAP side is the amount, especially DAP, that we've typically imported. I mean, I don't know what or if, you know, any, you know, kind of extra capacity we have to onshore any more phosphate production more than what's going on. I mean, that would be the only thing that would, you know, potentially impact, specifically dApp. Because dApp, I mean, a lot of that market is if you look at it, China controls a fair amount of it because they're the number one producer of phosphates.
Daniel Kaiser:If you look at it worldwide, I think some people might think that there are some other issues, but that's, I think, one of the kind of the questions really now kind of controlling this is is what's gonna happen long term. And, you know, nitrogen's one thing. I think, you know, phosphate's gonna be the bigger one. I think we can discuss some things here later on with with some of that.
Brad Carlson:Well, I think it's worth noting, Dan. I was I toured a fertilizer plant, with a group here, a place that I go frequently. And, because I go there frequently, I kinda know what their product selection is, and they have historically always had DAP. They suddenly have switched to MAP there because because of price point, and so, it's interesting you'd say that.
Daniel Kaiser:Well, in just talking to, you know, some people from OCP North America, I mean, they're outside of Morocco, they're kind of there's been some talk of triple. I mean, the supply really for triple isn't really all that great. I mean, there's some areas in Minnesota I know that are carrying it, but I'm kinda curious long term, you know, you know, with the price shifts, you know, if they see that it is favorable to start shipping some of these products in, what you might see for some of the phosphate materials. Because in some areas, you know, triple's been, you know, $100 a ton less than than MAP or DAP. And so, you know, whether or not we see any shifts in what's being sold and, you know, that would be the interesting thing to me because on the nitrogen and water quality side, you know, I think there's a fair amount of that end that doesn't get accounted for that's being applied in MAP and DAP that, you know, if it's not being accounted for, it's just essentially being applied in addition to what growers are applying with their standard end rate, and it's likely being lost.
Daniel Kaiser:So, you know, on the water quality side, there might be some interesting things to kinda look at with some of that, what might be happening there. But that's really my concern really right now. I mean, if you look at you know, I just was trying to pull up some price trends, this the only stuff I've seen is through maybe the July, as we're recording this kind of, you know, kind of just early August is, you know, you see, you know, some creep on some of the prices on potash. Yeah. That's one that would be tariff affected just, you know, depending on what happens with Canada because almost all of what we have is imported, for for, potash.
Daniel Kaiser:So, you know, that had dropped down a fair, you know, considerably. So it was one of the things that I think was a little bit encouraging for me, at least, for some of the growers that maybe have been neglecting neglecting some of their k applications as the potash prices drop. But it'll be interesting. You know, there's a lot of that specialty market, with, like, MicroEssentials and stuff as mat based, and there's a fair amount, I think, of the mines. Generally, the difference between the two is the quality of the ore, and, you know, it's kinda what I had heard in the last few years is that the the quality of the ore being mined here in The US, it drops.
Daniel Kaiser:So that's why we see more map production. And if you look at it, you know, with what's being imported, you know, we do produce more map in this country, whether or not we might see some shifts, kinda as you're saying, Brad, towards more map based just because of the the availability of the product. So we'll we'll kinda see long term availability. That's one of the questions that always comes up, especially on phosphate, a lot of these sources, and I don't put a lot of difference in in their availability, so I don't get too concerned about what source you have. I mean, you should be getting available phosphate from those sources.
Daniel Kaiser:It's MAP, DAP, or triple. I don't see a whole lot of difference.
Lindsay Pease:Yeah. I would think the other source, Dan, that you haven't mentioned that's a little bit newer is the Struvite or Crystal Green. We actually tested some of that up here in Crookston. And, again, just like you said, not much difference between performance. So that would be something where, you know, keep a watch on that too along with triple superphosphate, struvite comes from a recycled source, and, you know, the prices they used to with the initial formulations, you had to apply some MAP or DAP with that struvite or crystal green.
Lindsay Pease:But, you know, that's a place where I could see, you know, if the process gets more efficient and if, you know, imported prices become higher, we might see a price point where that becomes competitive. And so that'd be one to keep an eye on that's a little
Daniel Kaiser:Yeah. And the thing you really wanna do is look at price per unit nutrient. And the Struvite is an interesting one because actually, Lindsay, I think they actually are using some map to to actually manufacture that too. So it isn't I mean, it's it's somewhat recycled, but just to get their capacity, they can't get enough. So, I mean, generally, I would consider that one to be a higher cost, and that's why they're usually claiming a higher efficiency with that product is because of the the higher price point.
Daniel Kaiser:I mean, the really the big thing is just to look at your price per unit nutrient. That's the thing. I look at whether it's a liquid or a dry. You You know, if you're really trying to pencil things out, just see what you're getting because I'm seeing some creep in with some of these lower analysis starters where some I know retailers are starting to really look at some of these things. And if I look at, you know, the amount you're getting per unit nutrient, the cost, that's really where I look at these things.
Daniel Kaiser:You know, there's, I think, a certain amount you wanna get, to be effective. But if you're paying, you know, three, four, or five times the cost per pound p two zero five than you would for MAP or DAP, it may not necessarily be worth it if you could put on, you know, you know, three, four, five times that amount with a dry fertilizer versus some of these liquids. Might be something to kinda look at, you know, evaluating what exactly you need here moving forward.
Jeff Vetsch:I've harped on this before, but I would harp on it again now more than ever with the economic situation is, you know, soil test, phosphorus in particular. So many of these fields, at least here in South Central, Southeast Minnesota, and I'm assuming the Southwest too, very high p, pretty common, you know, over 20 part per million Bray, over fourteen, twelve Olsen, still recommending or still applying crop removal, probably not needed. It's certainly a time to think about that. Phosphorus is pretty expensive right now. It's probably the one fertilizer you could save the most money on by either cutting back or not applying at all if your soil test spray is in the 30 part per million or above.
Jeff Vetsch:I think Dan touched on the liquids. I think that makes a lot of sense. If you've been a starter fertilizer person and you're looking to cut costs and you're gonna broadcast phosphorus anyway, maybe you don't need that liquid. If you're using that liquid to put on your sulfur, well, that might be a different story. Micros is something that's always expensive.
Jeff Vetsch:Make sure you need it. Look at your soil tests. And then Brad touched on it briefly, but there's there's some big differences in nitrogen prices in this last report that came out from Russ Quinn at DTN, which, like Dan said, was in late July. There was a pretty big price point difference between anhydrous and urea, and I know what Brad's saying is is that there's a lot of uncertainty about whether that's gonna continue. But if you're in the market to prepay and you've used urea in the past, whether you put it on in the spring and you're in South Central or Southwest Minnesota, but you're thinking about you could get anhydrous in the fall cheaper, that might be something worth looking at.
Daniel Kaiser:And I mean, just circling back to Jeff, what you said on the soil testing, I mean, it just I think it's spot on, and that's, you know, where you know, if I look at the especially with phosphates, I trust the phosphorus soil test far more than I do the potassium. I mean, it gives you a general idea. And if you're above 200 part per million, you're okay. You're probably gonna be okay. I mean, you're kind of know, where I worry about for most Central Minnesota is about 150.
Daniel Kaiser:If you're in that area, I mean, it could be plus or minus quite a bit. You know, actually, what it is, especially with the dried test, there's some uncertainty there. But, with phosphorus, I mean, you know, 20 Bray, you know, if you're, you know, close to, you know, fifteen, twenty Olsen, or if you're getting, know, a lot of, you know, samples go out and go to Midwest labs, you know, there's a Mehlich three ICP if you're, you know, 35, 40 plus on that. You know, really the thing I would look at doing if you're really hesitant on completely getting or eliminating phosphorus is to look at a cut rate, you know, put on forty, fifty percent of your two year spread or your removal spread. I mean, that should cover you for especially if you're applying it ahead of corn.
Daniel Kaiser:And, you know, I've seen that in a lot of our cases in Central Min or Southern Minnesota where we, you know, see if you don't have pH issues where you see a lot of phosphorus tie up in those soils, we can maintain soil tests for quite a few years at some of those lower reduced rates and still get maximum yield. And I think that's really the biggest fear, and the thing I've seen is, you know, if you look at my predecessors have done a really good job of selling the value of phosphate fertilizers in, in the state of Minnesota, and, you know, it's one of those things that I I think it's hard for some people to start thinking about cutting back, and the retailers really push a lot for the straight up removal. And you don't need to be that exact, and, you know, it's one of the areas if you wanna put some on or you wanna reduce the rate down, you know, look at, you know, 40% or so of of what you're removing over that two year spread. Apply that. And as Jeff said on the starter, I mean, I just summarized that we just looking here again at some data, some studies that Jeff and I did, back around the mid you know, around 2015 or so.
Daniel Kaiser:And, you know, there's really no reason to put on more than about two and a half to three gallons of ten thirty four o for a starter. I mean, it gives you the growth boost you need. If you've got lower soil tests, I mean, if you are taking care of that with broadcast, just put on that single low rate and then deal with the rest of it with broadcast and and call it good. And and with those with starter looking at some of these these, these newer products, if you can't get about 10 units p two zero five on, don't even bother with it. I mean, you're you're just not getting enough to do anything.
Daniel Kaiser:And if you've already broadcasting, I mean, yeah, you're you're not gonna see those large plants early in the growing season, but in most cases, that's all visual, and it's mostly cosmetic, and you're not gonna see a benefit at the end of the year. It's really about what the nutrients you're applying. You know, I mean, I'll I'll probably just I mean, I'll continue to harp on phosphorus this fall and this winter in the meetings and, you know, and see where I'll get. That's the one that, you know, I trust that soil test to tell me what the availability is gonna be. So that's one where I've got way more confidence if you're looking at making some adjustments versus some of the other nutrients.
Jack Wilcox:What are the regional differences each of you sees with respect to fertilizer management this year? Lindsey, let's start with you in the Red River Valley in Northwestern Minnesota.
Lindsay Pease:I think, you know, the big message for Northwest Minnesota, I mean, going into this fall, is really think about what are those limiting factors in your field, especially when it comes to thinking about that nitrogen rate. And often, especially if you're growing corn, we are rain limited. We are almost never nitrogen limited growing corn in Northwest Minnesota. So really think about that when you're deciding on a rate, and think about, like, what your probable yield is. I would even say that's true for wheat.
Lindsay Pease:I mean, I think I see a lot of really ambitious wheat goals, but even in a year like this, we've had a lot of rain. Seen a lot of lodged wheats, and you can pick a variety that has better straw strength, but, you know, making sure your nitrogen rate is dialed in for what that yield is gonna be is is gonna, you know, help with those issues. You know, other limiting factors we see here, you know, you can't fertilize your way out of a weed problem or a disease problem, and we do see that a lot too. So I would really think about that, and I think there are probably some places that, you know, like we've been talking about, you can be a little bit economical about maybe cutting those rates, not even maybe by a lot, but, you know, just 5 or 10 pounds per acre could save you quite a bit of money this year. And I just wanna echo, you know, some of some of what we were just talking about, especially with respect to soybeans.
Lindsay Pease:I mean, really think about if putting phosphorus on your soybeans is gonna see a return. I mean, even in our, you know, the many, many trials that we've put out, you know, the chance of getting an, you know, an economic boost on soybeans if you put a phosphorus application about there, with prices being so low. I just would think there are other places you could spend that money instead of on phosphorus fertilizer for the beans. The last thing I'm gonna say, and this is actually talking to my growers out in North Central Minnesota, if you have high organic matter soils and you're sending your soils off to a commercial testing lab, make sure that they understand if your bulk density is really low because a lot of those soil testing labs are just using a scoop and they're not going off of the weight of soil. So you could actually be getting higher readings back from a commercial testing lab.
Lindsay Pease:So I'd say call the lab and make sure that they know what you're sending. Just make sure you're getting accurate results. This is something I've kind of tapped into a little bit lately working with more growers in North Central Minnesota. This is high organic matter, low bulk density if you're, like, peatland type soils. But just be aware there may you may wanna call the testing lab if you're sending soils out.
Brad Carlson:Going a little bit further south from Lindsay, I've traveled a fair amount through the state, and it's extremely wet in West Central Minnesota when you get down down to that Ortonville, La Quaparle area. So so most of the state, though, as you come across the Southern half of the state, has really had adequate rainfall this year to almost to the point of excessive, when the corn crop gets this large and the roots are deep or relatively deep. I guess there is some discussion that maybe they're shallow this year on account of how much rainfall we have, but the corn's using a lot of water. I guess that's the point I wanna make. So we've not been really necessarily saturated, but the point is that we probably got a lot more water in the soil profile right now than we do most years headed towards harvest.
Brad Carlson:And so that that could have some implications this fall on nitrogen management. You know, we've really not liked the idea of using fall urea in Western Minnesota, for quite a long time, and particularly this year with the soils being as wet as they are, you're really setting yourself up for some problems. How that's playing into the issue of urea availability and price, I don't know. And also that that is further complicated by the fact that there's a lot of retailers in that part of the state no longer selling anhydrous ammonia. But I guess it's it's a good year to kinda go back and say, you know, really, anhydrous is the preferred product for fall application.
Brad Carlson:Again, you know, if it's gonna be wet, we know that there can be application issues with anhydrous and wet soils that you don't have ceiling in the trenches sometimes. Obviously, we're just going to have to kinda play that by year. But, in general, this is not a year where we're expecting a lot of nitrogen carryover on account of the the soil moisture conditions. I would not expect other than under the circumstances that we normally recommend a long term manure histories, and particularly, we don't have to deal with the drought. We're probably not looking at taking false soil nitrate test or preplanned soil nitrate test this year.
Brad Carlson:So in general, you know, a large portion of the state is probably just gonna have to kinda keep an eye on whether we've got excessively wet soil conditions.
Jeff Vetsch:I have one site in Southwest. It was been relatively dry in in the Lamberton area. Crop looks really good there, but I I agree with Brad. You don't you go 50 or 75 miles north of there, and I haven't been there, but I've heard it's extraordinarily wet. But I think in general, the Southwest part of the state has missed a lot of these heavy rains, and conditions are probably typical of what they see in that drier part of the state.
Jeff Vetsch:Here in South Central, it's been very, very isolated. We've got areas that are extraordinarily wet, and here at Waseca, we've been almost ideal most of the spring. We had a couple of heavy rains. So, yeah, Brad is right on. We're we've got probably 75 to 90% of a full water profile, which is way different than the last three years when we were pretty dry in the fall.
Jeff Vetsch:So that does have some impact on end management in the fall. And I think, you know, we're talking about fertilizer, but also thinking about manure applications. It's gonna have an impact on manure. If you're taking a tanker out there and you've got moist soils, you got some risk for compaction. But also if you got moist soils, it's gonna help that manure nitrify faster.
Jeff Vetsch:And remember that liquid swine manure is probably 75% ammonium n, so it nitrifies really fast. If you're out there in in early October, once those beans come off, you can expect that to nitrify pretty rapidly. The ninety day forecast prediction is for a warm and moist fall for most of the state. So I guess my point of this is that delay those fall applications as late as you can if they contain nitrogen, manure, nitrogen fertilizer, and Southeast has been really good. They've adopted the new role.
Jeff Vetsch:They're accepting it. There's not much end goes on over there other than other than in DAP, basically. So their their moisture conditions, they're good. Those soils are a little more forgiving in the fall, so their main concern there is fall manure applications and and getting those done as the fields are fit.
Jack Wilcox:There's been a renewed focus on water quality issues in Minnesota. How should that affect farmers' decision making?
Brad Carlson:Well, we've already referenced a lot of this stuff that Jeff just talked about, the prohibition on fall nitrogen application in Southeastern Minnesota. So, obviously, people in that area are are already kinda well aware of that. Statewide, we're in the process of of releasing a revised nutrient reduction strategy for the state. The draft is actually out there right now for people to take a look at and make public comment on. You know, I think as far as, statewide is concerned with respect to the water quality issues, it really comes back to some of the stuff that that I already mentioned.
Brad Carlson:It's it's farmers really kinda taking charge of their own nitrogen management. Make sure you're not overfertilizing. Also, kinda be in tune with kind of how we've been evolving our recommendations over the last few years. We've just seen really greatly increased precipitation, particularly across the southern half of the state. And so, you know, we don't really like seeing a lot of fall or any fall urea on anymore, other than probably up where Lindsay's at.
Brad Carlson:There's just simply too big of a risk of losing that. I think in particular, there's a small area in the Southwest corner of the state that rock Pipe stone, part of Lincoln County, and maybe a little fringes, just a tad into the bordering counties to the east that has lost soils and gravel. There's a lot of water quality issues there. I guess, really, with the the kind of adequate precipitation we've been receiving this year, that's another part of the state I would really look at potentially moving my applications to the springtime if that's possible. And those are probably the big things.
Brad Carlson:You know, I think the other thing, from a broad perspective, and Lindsay can talk a little bit more about this maybe, is to be careful with with, fall phosphorus applications and potentially runoff. You know, the as we're dealing with soils are approaching saturation, it's not going to once the crop is gone and not using water and then the days are cooler and we're not evaporating much, it's not gonna take a lot more to saturate these soils. And then after that, a lot of that water is gonna just simply run over land instead of, going through, through the soil profile. So there is a chance of losing some of our phosphorus as applied this fall too.
Lindsay Pease:Yeah. That's exactly right. I mean, I think a really good rule of thumb is where there's water moving, there's gonna be nutrients moving. And we do know some of that is avoid is gonna be unavoidable. But at the same time, you know, this would be a good time to, you know, be trying something like a fall cover crop to kinda help soils get in into place, especially if you can get a crop off early.
Lindsay Pease:You know, of course, one thing I do have to mention with that in Northwest Minnesota is you do wanna wait until about September 15 if you're gonna do something like cereal rye because we do have a potential for Green Bridge to blow across roads into adjacent fields. If you have an overwintering rye cover crop, you can see, you know, wheat streak mosaic virus or or hessian fly, which are rare, but we actually did see wheat streak mosaic virus at the research and outreach center, and it jumped a gravel road from a rye cover crop that wasn't terminated into a recently growing wheat field. So it definitely does happen. It's not just a hypothetical. So, you know, better if you are gonna, you know, prepile some sugar beet acres and you wanna get a cover crop out before September 15, then you can start to look at something like oats.
Lindsay Pease:It will grow, you know, in between August and, you know, October. It'll winter kill, but that'll reduce any potential for that green bridge to have a break between, you know, the fall cover crop and then an early growing spring crop like wheat.
Jack Wilcox:How many fertilizer decisions can actually be pushed off until next year?
Daniel Kaiser:Well, I think that, you know, Jack, that's gonna be mostly logistical question. And, you know, a lot of the retailers really try to push for a lot of the at least the p and k in the fall as much as possible just to try to stretch out their window for application timing. From an availability standpoint, you know, really, I mean, we could everything could be done in the spring if we really well, I mean, in terms of availability standpoint, there's no difference. So, you know, theoretically, if you had the capacity to do it, I mean, really, the difference between fall and spring, I don't see a whole lot of difference. What I would really try to do, and, you what I'm seeing more and more for fall application that, you know, soybeans is really if you're you are directly fertilizing soybeans, I mean, that's, you know, one that I would try to probably prioritize, although it gets a little more difficult because they you're likely coming off a corn ground, so it's getting pushed later.
Daniel Kaiser:So that might be some of the stuff that gets pushed more often than not. But, you know, from a, like, from a research standpoint, you know, from availability standpoint, I don't see a big difference. So it's mostly logistical issue and a price issue. And, I mean, I think the really the big thing with the way prices are at right now is, you know, if anybody's, you know, sitting back waiting to see what happens in the spring. I mean, I I really I was looking at some the DTN stuff that, you know, Jeff mentioned too going back to back to a year ago.
Daniel Kaiser:I mean, really haven't seen dapper mat prices change all that much. So, I mean, I you know, waiting, I don't think it's really gonna gonna see really any big impact on that potash. You know? Who knows? You know, what things are in spring.
Daniel Kaiser:We're just, you know, too uncertain right now with the tariff situation to know kind of where prices are gonna fall at. I mean, will there be? Won't there be? What what will that, you know, tariff be? I mean, that's kind of the the bigger issue right now, and I know that's gotta be causing a lot of headaches for growers and retailers trying to figure out what the pricings are gonna be, and then sure that's really why we're seeing a lot of the the hesitancy for, you know, prebooking some of those spring applications.
Daniel Kaiser:So, really, right now, I would just, you know, look at you know, if you are worried about that, you're worried about cost, just look at what the rates you're applying and maybe look at cutting rates. You know, in terms of delaying, it is just gonna be kind of a question of, I think, whether or not anybody's gonna be a little more hesitant to really be booking some of the stuff in fall just because where the prices are at. But I just I I don't really see I mean, usually we usually we we say that the prices are 10% higher, usually for nitrogen in the spring, but, you know, right now, who knows? I mean, who who knows what's gonna happen? So I think that'll be kind of the big thing is, just, kind of attitudes right now in terms of if things keep going the way they're going.
Daniel Kaiser:And I think looking at where you could cut is really kinda the bigger the bigger thing right now and, you know, getting some p and k on the fall isn't a bad thing, but maybe looking at some reduced rates in some of those products really is is is kinda one of the the things. And if you haven't soil tests or taken a soil sample, I think it's a good time to do it at this point. See if there are instances where you could make some, you know, decisions of of trimming back on on fertilizer costs.
Jeff Vetsch:Yeah. I think there's enough uncertainty that I think you need to make your your mind up based on soil test values and things like that if you're gonna reduce rates or if you're gonna have fields where you're just not gonna apply p and k or not apply phosphorus. Your nitrogen, I there's so much uncertainty. I agree with what Brad mentioned earlier. I think you just need to lock some in to make sure that you get what you want and have it available when you wanna apply it.
Jeff Vetsch:Whether that's putting it off till spring, is that gonna save you any money, but it's gonna maybe gonna add some risk. You gotta weigh that. That maybe that's a difficult decision as critical as nitrogen is. But I agree with what Dan said about p and k. You look back at the last twelve months, the prices really haven't changed a whole lot.
Jeff Vetsch:So tariffs are probably gonna influence a little bit, but is it gonna get any cheaper? It's unlikely. We've seen some springs where a lot of growers chose not to apply in the fall because the economics were tight, where then the price in the spring was a little bit less. If you're willing to roll the dice on that, you know, maybe that's gonna happen, but you just don't really know. I think other other options, you know, if you wanna push off sulfur to the springtime, that might not be a bad idea.
Jeff Vetsch:If you're looking at seeing what your yields come in at and what your bottom line looks like this fall, that's something that certainly could be put off till springtime.
Brad Carlson:You know, I talk a lot about farmers who have kinda turned all their decision making over to retailers, and that's that's one issue. But there's there's a completely separate issue, and that's farmers who have no no relationship with a retailer, and they're just simply running around, comparing costs. Given the level of uncertainty this year, that's probably a risky position to be in. I would I would suggest that you probably choose a retailer, find out how they plan to address this, make sure that you're actually able to get your fertilizer specifically on the nitrogen side, because, you know, if if they're not they're not even securing supply right now, they're probably not wanting to, secure an oversupply and then risk the price falling and losing money on that. And so if you wanna make sure you get yours, you probably better be better be working with a retailer on that regardless of whether they're willing to lock a price in right now or not.
Jack Wilcox:Brad Carlson, Lindsey Pease, Jeff Vetsch, and Daniel Kaiser. Thanks for being here. We appreciate it.
Daniel Kaiser:Thank you.
Jeff Vetsch:Thank you.
Jack Wilcox:Do you have a question about something on your farm? Just send us an email here at nutmgmt@umn.edu. Thanks a lot for listening, and we look forward to seeing you next time.
Jack Wilcox:We'd like to thank the Agricultural Fertilizer Research and Education Council, or AFREC, for supporting the podcast.
